Understanding the Complex Global Picture
The question of whether food security is decreasing is not a simple one, and recent data reveals a mixed and highly nuanced global landscape. While some metrics show a slight improvement in certain areas, the overall trajectory is concerning, with major headwinds threatening to reverse any progress. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) 2025 report noted a decrease in the prevalence of undernourishment from 8.7% in 2022 to 8.2% in 2024. However, this positive movement is overshadowed by the fact that nearly 2.3 billion people—about 28% of the global population—remained moderately or severely food insecure in 2024, with that number having risen significantly since 2019.
Regional disparities are stark. The same report highlights positive trends in parts of Asia and South America, while Africa continues to see a worsening situation, with undernourishment increasing by over 20% in 2024. Acute food insecurity, driven by conflict, economic shocks, and climate extremes, continues to rise catastrophically in fragile regions, affecting over 295 million people in 2024, according to the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC). This multifaceted picture necessitates a deeper look at the underlying causes.
The Primary Drivers of Food Insecurity
The factors pushing millions into food insecurity are complex and interconnected, ranging from global phenomena to localized issues. An effective response requires understanding this full range of pressures.
- Conflict and Instability: Geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts are consistently identified as major drivers of acute food insecurity. Conflicts displace populations, destroy essential infrastructure, disrupt agricultural production, and hinder humanitarian access. Famine has been confirmed in several conflict zones, demonstrating the catastrophic link between violence and starvation.
- Climate Change and Extreme Weather: A changing climate is increasingly disrupting food production and supply chains worldwide. Extreme weather events such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts degrade soil quality, disrupt planting cycles, and lead to significant crop failures. While some high-latitude regions may see a longer growing season, tropical and arid areas face detrimental effects like increased heat stress on crops and livestock.
- Economic Shocks and Inflation: Persistent global inflation, fueled by events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, continues to keep food prices elevated. High costs for fuel, fertilizer, and transportation put a massive strain on low-income households and vulnerable economies, making nutritious food unaffordable for billions of people.
- Weak Infrastructure and Poverty: Inadequate infrastructure for storage, transport, and distribution leads to significant food waste and limits access to markets, especially in rural areas. Coupled with systemic poverty, low wages, and unemployment, this creates a vicious cycle where many simply cannot afford adequate food.
A Comparison of Food Insecurity Drivers (Pre- and Post-2020)
The global food security landscape has shifted significantly in recent years. This table highlights how the primary drivers have evolved.
| Feature | Pre-2020 Landscape | Post-2020 Landscape (Current) |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Drivers | Protracted conflicts, localized climate shocks, and long-term poverty trends. | Escalating conflicts (e.g., Sudan, Gaza), intensified climate extremes, and widespread, sustained economic shocks and inflation. |
| Economic Influence | More stable global markets, lower food price volatility, and slower-moving economic stressors. | Intense food price inflation, supply chain disruptions exacerbated by global events, and high cost of inputs (e.g., fertilizer). |
| Climate Impact | Significant but regionalized impacts; rising awareness of long-term risks. | Greater frequency and severity of extreme weather events, leading to more synchronized crop failures and higher global food prices. |
| Displacement | Conflict-driven displacement primarily focused on a few key regions. | Significant increase in forcibly displaced people due to a broader range of conflicts and climate events. |
Building Resilient Food Systems for a Stable Future
Addressing the decline in food security requires a multi-pronged, systemic approach. Building resilience is key to mitigating future shocks and stresses, from climate disasters to economic downturns.
- Strengthening Agricultural Resilience: Investing in climate-resilient crop varieties, improved water management, and sustainable farming practices can help protect food production from climate shocks. This also includes improving soil health, which enhances water retention and reduces the need for chemical fertilizers.
- Improving Market Transparency: Promoting transparent, timely information on food markets is crucial for coordinated policy responses that can balance immediate relief with structural reforms. This helps prevent panic-driven trade restrictions that disrupt global supply.
- Targeting Humanitarian Assistance: Given the widespread nature of acute food insecurity, humanitarian aid must be well-targeted and effectively deployed to hunger hotspots. Organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) play a critical role in providing life-saving relief.
- Investing in Local Producers: Empowering small-scale producers through access to resources, knowledge, and financial services can significantly improve food security at the community level. This strengthens local economies and reduces dependency on global markets.
- Adopting Anticipatory Action: Early warning systems and proactive measures can mitigate the impact of predictable shocks, such as expected weather extremes. This involves preparing for disasters before they happen, rather than simply reacting to them.
For more information on global food crises, see the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2025.
Conclusion: A Precarious Balance
Is food security decreasing? The answer is both complex and alarming. While global hunger prevalence has seen some minor declines from pandemic peaks, the deeper issue of moderate and severe food insecurity persists for billions. Furthermore, the convergence of geopolitical conflicts, intensifying climate change, and persistent economic volatility creates a highly fragile environment. Progress in one region is often counteracted by deterioration in another, and the world is not on track to meet its goal of ending hunger by 2030. Building resilient food systems and addressing the root causes of instability and inequality are critical steps to reverse this precarious trend and ensure a stable food future for all.
