Understanding Tariffs and the Infant Formula Market
For years, the U.S. infant formula market has been dominated by a few key domestic producers, a situation that came into sharp focus during the 2022 national shortage. To alleviate the crisis, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) temporarily relaxed import restrictions, paving the way for international brands like the UK's Kendamil to enter the US market. The subsequent influx of foreign formula, brought in under 'Operation Fly Formula,' helped restock shelves, but this regulatory easing was temporary. High pre-existing tariffs, some exceeding 25%, were also briefly lifted during this period. However, recent policy changes have reintroduced and altered the tariff landscape, affecting many imported goods, including baby formula from the European Union (EU) where Kendamil is produced.
How Recent Tariff Policies Could Impact Kendamil
In 2025, significant changes to US tariff policy were implemented, directly affecting imports from the EU. On August 29, 2025, the US eliminated the $800 de minimis exemption, which previously allowed low-value international shipments to enter duty-free. This means all shipments from the EU, regardless of value, could become subject to customs duties. Additionally, a new 'Reciprocal Tariff Policy' announced in April 2025 targeted EU imports, with some reports suggesting a potential 20% tariff.
When tariffs are imposed, they can increase a company's costs, which can then be passed on to consumers, absorb company profits, or result in a mix of both. A Kendamil co-founder previously stated that reinstated tariffs could raise costs by 20%, but the company initially planned to absorb the costs to focus on customer growth. However, this strategy is not guaranteed long-term, especially with sustained or higher tariffs, leading to potential price hikes for US parents. The impact on Kendamil's pricing and the affordability of its products as a nutritional option for infants will hinge on the company's long-term business strategy under these new conditions.
The Challenge of Market Availability and FDA Compliance
Beyond tariffs, Kendamil's long-term presence and availability in the US are dependent on its permanent FDA approval. The brand was among the first international suppliers approved during Operation Fly Formula, and has been working with the FDA for years to meet all requirements. In 2023, Kendamil's co-founder expressed optimism about securing a permanent US market spot. A permanent FDA approval is crucial, as it allows the brand to remain in the US market beyond temporary measures and compete with established domestic brands. Without it, Kendamil would be a vulnerable target for tariffs and future market restrictions.
Factors Influencing Kendamil's Future Market Position
- FDA Status: Securing permanent FDA compliance is the primary factor for long-term US market access.
- Tariff Costs: The magnitude of tariffs and whether Kendamil decides to absorb them or pass them to consumers will dictate pricing.
- Supply Chain Resilience: Robust supply chains are essential to prevent shortages, an area where Kendamil has been expanding its production capacity.
- Consumer Demand: Continued high demand from parents seeking specialty, whole-milk formulas will incentivize Kendamil to maintain US availability despite challenges.
Comparison of Tariff Impacts
| Factor | Pre-2022 Shortage & Post-2022 Tariff Lifting | 2025 US Tariff Changes (affecting EU imports) |
|---|---|---|
| Tariff Rate (Infant Formula) | High, up to 25%+ on imported formula, limiting market access. | Variable, potentially 20% on EU goods, with some retailers absorbing costs. |
| De Minimis Exemption | Up to $800, allowing small individual orders to be duty-free. | Eliminated for EU imports as of August 29, 2025, impacting all shipment values. |
| Kendamil Position | Largely excluded from the US market due to high tariffs and non-tariff barriers, until Operation Fly Formula. | Faces potential higher import costs, but is more established in the US market through FDA collaboration. |
| Cost to Consumer | Generally inaccessible or expensive for direct imports due to tariffs. | Could see price increases if retailers or Kendamil pass on the costs. |
| Market Diversity | Limited competition from foreign brands. | Improved diversity compared to pre-2022, but new tariffs create uncertainty for importers. |
Impact on Consumer Nutrition Diet Decisions
Tariffs and trade policies do more than just affect supply chains; they directly influence the range of options available to parents navigating their child's nutrition diet. For those seeking specific formula characteristics, such as Kendamil's whole milk recipe without palm or fish oil, supply interruptions or price increases can be particularly stressful. A lack of specialized imported options could force parents to switch to domestic brands that may not align with their preferences or their baby's specific needs. The volatility of supply and price can also disproportionately impact lower-income families who rely on consistent pricing or government programs like WIC, although WIC's structure already restricts brand choice significantly. Ensuring a resilient and diverse infant formula market requires addressing not only domestic manufacturing but also the trade barriers that affect reliable imported options. More information on formula import regulations can be found on the FDA website.
Conclusion
The answer to "Will Kendamil be affected by the tariffs?" is a complex yes, but the extent of the impact is still unfolding. While the brand has established a foothold and is working toward long-term FDA approval in the US, recent tariff policy shifts pose a new set of challenges to its cost structure and market accessibility. The removal of the de minimis exemption for EU imports and the possibility of higher tariff rates could lead to price increases for consumers, potentially restricting access for families prioritizing Kendamil for their infant's nutrition diet. Parents will need to closely monitor the market and be aware of how Kendamil and other retailers handle these additional costs. The situation underscores the sensitivity of the infant formula market to global trade policies and the importance of a robust, diverse supply chain for essential nutritional products.
