Is there food scarcity in Japan? Understanding the Nation's Food Security Challenges

December 17, 2025 •

4 min read

Japan's calorie-based food self-sufficiency rate stood at just 38% in fiscal 2021, one of the lowest among developed countries. This statistic is central to understanding the complex answer to the question, "Is there food scarcity in Japan?", as it reveals a deep-seated reliance on global supply chains that recent events have shown can be vulnerable.

Quick Summary

Despite its economic strength, Japan faces significant food security issues driven by import dependency, agricultural decline, and rising costs. Supply chain vulnerabilities and climate impacts exacerbate these challenges.

Key Points

High Import Reliance: Japan imports a large portion of its food, with a calorie-based self-sufficiency rate of only around 38%, creating vulnerability to global supply chain shocks.
Declining Agricultural Production: Domestic farming is shrinking due to an aging population, a lack of successors, and limited arable land, further exacerbating import dependency.
Structural Issues with Rice: Recent high-profile price spikes and supply issues with rice were caused by government policies that intentionally restricted production and environmental factors like extreme heat.
Household-Level Vulnerability: Rising food prices, particularly for staples like rice, have placed a heavy burden on household budgets, especially for low-income families, despite overall national wealth.
Progress in Waste Reduction: Japan has made significant progress in reducing commercial food waste and has achieved its national reduction targets ahead of schedule, but household waste remains a challenge.
Proactive Strategies: The government is implementing long-term strategies to revitalize agriculture, promote sustainability, and increase domestic production, including supporting larger farm operations and using technology.

Japan's Low Food Self-Sufficiency and High Import Dependency

Japan is the world's third-largest importer of agricultural and food products, with almost 60% of its total food consumed coming from overseas. This heavy reliance on imports is a major vulnerability, particularly in a world facing geopolitical tensions, global trade disruptions, and the impacts of climate change. The country's calorie-based food self-sufficiency has been a persistent concern for the government, hovering around 37–39% in recent years, far below its target of 45%. Most of the country's grain, including wheat, corn, and soybeans, is imported. While this model has functioned during peaceful times, it leaves the nation susceptible to external shocks.

Factors contributing to the import reliance

The low food self-sufficiency rate stems from several interconnected factors:

Changing Dietary Habits: The shift away from traditional rice-heavy diets towards Western-style food, which often relies on imported ingredients for livestock feed and processed goods, has been a key driver since the 1960s.
Limited Arable Land: Japan is a mountainous country with limited flat land for farming, a significant natural constraint.
Aging Farming Population: The average age of farmers is rising, with many lacking successors, leading to a decline in the number of agricultural entities and a reduction in total production capacity.

The Recent 'Rice Crisis' as a Warning Sign

While not a widespread food shortage, recent localized crises, particularly involving rice, highlight Japan's underlying vulnerabilities. In mid-2025, Japan experienced a notable rice crisis marked by soaring prices and supply shortages. Prices for the staple food nearly doubled year-on-year. This was caused by a convergence of factors:

Government Policy: For years, agricultural policies promoted by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) and the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) aimed to reduce rice cultivation acreage to maintain high prices, artificially restricting supply.
Environmental Factors: Extreme heat during the 2023 harvest negatively impacted yields, and rising summer temperatures in 2024 further suppressed production.
Wholesaler Actions: Some experts suggest that wholesalers may have held back stock to drive up prices.

This "rice crisis" is a microcosm of larger issues. The government was forced to release emergency stockpiles to address the immediate problem, but long-term structural issues remain unresolved.

Addressing Food Waste and Promoting Sustainability

Japan has made significant strides in reducing food waste, a key pillar of its food security strategy. Total food waste in fiscal 2023 hit a new record low of 4.64 million tons, though much work remains, especially at the household level.

Key efforts include:

Policy and Targets: The 2019 Food Loss Reduction Promotion Act supports food bank activities and sets ambitious targets, which were met in the business sector eight years ahead of schedule.
Consumer Initiatives: Campaigns promoting the concept of mottainai (expressing regret over waste) and digital platforms encourage households to reduce waste. Smart refrigerator technology is also being tested to help consumers manage their food.
Business Practices: The food industry has moved towards relaxing strict delivery deadlines and extending best-before dates to minimize waste.

Japan's Food Self-Sufficiency: Past, Present, and Challenges

This table illustrates the long-term trend in Japan's food self-sufficiency and the ongoing challenges.


Indicator	1960	2021	2045 (Projection without changes)	Notes
Calorie-based Self-Sufficiency	79%	38%	37%	A significant and rapid decline since the post-war era.
Grain-based Self-Sufficiency	62%	27%	N/A	Driven by dietary changes and import reliance.
Total Food Waste	N/A	~4.72M tons (FY2022)	Targeted reduction	Government aims to halve total waste from FY2000 levels by FY2030.
Agricultural Production Value	N/A	~¥8.9T (2020)	~¥4.3T (Projection)	Declining production value due to fewer farmers and changing land use.

Government Strategies and Future Outlook

The Japanese government is acutely aware of the food security challenges and is implementing various strategies. The "Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas" outlines a shift towards supporting larger, more efficient, and export-oriented farming operations. Initiatives also include diversifying crops, exploring smart agriculture technologies, and using underutilized farmland. International contributions through food aid are also part of Japan's broader food security efforts.

Challenges and opportunities

Population Decline: While Japan's population is shrinking, potentially reducing overall food demand, the production decline is outpacing this trend, widening the import gap.
Climate Change: Extreme weather events, such as the heatwaves affecting rice crops, pose a growing threat to domestic production.
Innovation: Smart agriculture, organic farming expansion, and developing climate-resilient crops offer potential pathways to bolster domestic supply and sustainability.
Waste Reduction: Though progress has been made, reducing household food waste remains a priority and a significant opportunity for improvement.

Conclusion

While Japan does not currently face widespread, critical food shortages, it is not immune to food scarcity concerns. The nation's vulnerability lies in its heavy reliance on imports and a fragile domestic agricultural sector, which are both exposed to global and internal pressures. Issues like the recent rice crisis serve as potent reminders of how quickly supply chain disruptions, coupled with problematic domestic policies and climate impacts, can affect the availability and affordability of staple foods. Japan's multi-pronged approach, focusing on enhancing domestic production, reducing food waste, and leveraging sustainable technologies, is crucial for strengthening its food security and mitigating the risks associated with its low self-sufficiency rate. Long-term stability depends on the government's ability to effectively reform agricultural policies and adapt to global and domestic challenges.

Understanding Japanese Food Self-Sufficiency Decline

Frequently Asked Questions

No, Japan is not facing a widespread food shortage. However, its low food self-sufficiency rate and high reliance on imports make it vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions, as recently highlighted by a sharp increase in rice prices.

In fiscal 2021, Japan's calorie-based food self-sufficiency rate was approximately 38%. This figure has been a long-term concern for the government, and it is one of the lowest among major developed countries.

Japan's dependency on imports is due to a combination of factors, including a limited amount of arable land, changing dietary preferences towards foods not produced domestically, and a shrinking, aging farming population.

Yes, in 2025, Japan experienced a significant "rice crisis" with soaring prices and supply shortages. This was largely attributed to a long-standing government policy of restricting rice acreage, coupled with a poor harvest caused by extreme heat.

The aging farming population, with many lacking successors, has led to a decline in agricultural production. This reduces domestic food supply and increases reliance on foreign imports, weakening Japan's food security.

The government is pursuing strategies to enhance domestic production, including reforming agricultural policies to support larger, more efficient farms and promoting smart agriculture technologies. There is also a strong focus on reducing food waste.

While Japan has made significant progress in reducing total food waste, achieving its national reduction targets ahead of schedule, household food waste remains a notable issue that the government continues to address through public awareness campaigns.