Evidence for a Widespread Warming Trend
For a brief period from the early 1960s to the early 1990s, climate data indicated a cooling period for Turkey, influenced by phenomena like the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1992. However, this trend has dramatically reversed. Since the mid-1990s, a statistically significant warming trend has been firmly established. This warming is not confined to one area but is widespread across the country, with data showing a consistent increase in average annual temperatures.
The warming manifests in several key ways across Turkey:
- Higher Average Temperatures: Annual mean temperatures have been consistently above normal since 2007, with very few exceptions. In 2018, for instance, the annual mean temperature was 1.9°C above the 1981-2010 normal. This trend culminated in 2024 being officially designated as the warmest year on record, exceeding the previous record set in 2010.
- Increased Frequency of Heatwaves: The country is experiencing a higher frequency and intensity of heatwaves. In 2024, summer mean temperatures were 2.1°C above the seasonal normal, contributing to extreme weather. In 2025, temperatures are projected to rise even further, potentially exceeding 50°C in some areas.
- Retreating Glaciers: Perhaps one of the most visible indicators of long-term warming is the retreat of Turkey's glaciers. The country's largest remaining glaciers on Mount Ararat are melting at an accelerated rate and are projected to be completely gone before the end of the century.
- Warming Seas: All four of Turkey’s surrounding seas—the Black Sea, Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean—are experiencing significant warming. A study revealed that sea surface temperatures have risen, with the Black Sea increasing by 2 degrees over the past decade.
Regional Differences and Precipitation Changes
While the overall trend is warming, the regional effects of climate change vary across Turkey. This is especially true for precipitation patterns, which have shown more complex and localized trends.
Impact of Precipitation Changes
- Southern and Southeastern Turkey: These regions are experiencing decreases in precipitation, exacerbating water stress. This has already led to issues such as severe drought in areas like the southeastern Anatolia region, impacting agricultural yields and water resources.
- Northern and Northwestern Turkey: In contrast to the south, some northern and northwestern areas, including parts of the Black Sea and Marmara regions, have seen increasing precipitation trends. However, this is often accompanied by more extreme rainfall events and flash flooding, particularly as rain replaces snow.
- Extreme Weather Events: Beyond just rainfall, Turkey has faced an increase in other extreme weather events. The year 2021 saw widespread wildfires in the south and destructive floods in the north, events that are becoming more frequent due to climate change.
Comparison: Recent vs. Historical Trends
| Climatic Factor | Recent Trends (Post-1990s) | Historical Trends (1960s-1990s) |
|---|---|---|
| Mean Temperature | Significant and accelerating warming trend, with record highs in recent years. | Overall cooling period, with minimum temperatures showing some signs of early-stage warming, especially in urban areas. |
| Extreme Heat | Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, especially in summer, contributing to wildfires. | Less frequent and less intense heatwaves compared to modern trends. |
| Precipitation | Decreasing trends in southern and western areas, increasing trends in some northern areas. | More variable, less pronounced regional trends compared to the stark modern shifts. |
| Glaciers | Rapid retreat of glaciers on Mount Ararat and elsewhere due to warming. | More stable or less pronounced melting rates compared to the modern accelerated decline. |
Broader Environmental and Economic Impacts
The warming trend in Turkey is not an isolated phenomenon; it has wide-ranging consequences for the country's environment and economy.
- Water Scarcity and Drought: Increasing temperatures combined with decreasing, erratic precipitation are intensifying water stress, particularly in the south. Some climate models predict that Turkey could become water scarce by the 2070s. This has significant implications for agriculture and hydroelectric power generation.
- Agriculture and Food Security: Decreasing rainfall and increased droughts pose a major threat to agricultural productivity, especially in rain-fed areas. Impacts include reduced crop yields and the increased risk of desertification in arid regions.
- Coastal Threats: Rising sea levels threaten Turkey's coastal infrastructure and settlements, with projections showing hundreds of thousands of people could be exposed to flooding by 2050. Major cities like Istanbul are at risk.
- Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Warming seas are affecting marine life, with changes in fishing patterns and the increasing threat of invasive species. On land, hotter and drier conditions are leading to more frequent and intense wildfires.
Conclusion
The question of "Is Turkey warming or cooling?" is definitively answered by robust scientific data: Turkey is warming, and this trend has accelerated significantly in recent decades. While historical data showed periods of localized cooling, the overall pattern since the mid-1990s points to a clear and consistent temperature increase. This warming is manifesting in higher average temperatures, increased heatwaves, retreating glaciers, and warming seas, with severe consequences for water resources, agriculture, and coastal regions. The evidence underscores the country's vulnerability to climate change and the urgent need for robust adaptation strategies. For more detailed information on global climate trends, visit the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website.
