The dynamics of global meat consumption are highly complex, exhibiting a distinct geographical and economic divide. While overall world consumption continues to rise, per capita trends in many high-income countries tell a different story of stagnation or decline. A deeper look reveals that factors such as income, cultural shifts, health consciousness, and environmental concerns are reshaping dietary patterns across the globe.
The Global Picture: Driven by Developing Nations
For decades, global meat consumption has increased, primarily fueled by rising incomes and a growing middle class in developing and emerging economies like China, Brazil, and Vietnam. Economic growth in these nations has made meat more accessible. For example, China's average per capita meat intake rose significantly from the 1960s to recent decades. Projections from the OECD and FAO expect this trend to continue, with global meat demand increasing by 2034, largely driven by growth in Asia and Latin America.
Shifting Preferences in Affluent Countries
In contrast, many high-income nations have reached 'peak meat', with per capita consumption plateauing or declining. This is observed in countries like Canada, Switzerland, and New Zealand. The UK, for instance, saw a notable fall in overall meat consumption over a decade. These changes result from factors including awareness of health risks from red meat, environmental and animal welfare concerns, and the growing availability of alternative proteins. This often leads to 'flexitarianism', where consumers reduce meat intake, choose smaller portions, or opt for poultry over red meat.
Key Factors Influencing Meat Consumption
The complex landscape of global meat consumption is shaped by multiple interacting factors. Here are some key drivers:
- Income and Affordability: Rising incomes in developing nations boost meat demand. In developed countries, economic pressures can push consumers towards cheaper proteins.
- Population Growth and Urbanization: Population increases, especially in low- and middle-income countries, drive total meat consumption. Urbanization also influences dietary habits.
- Cultural and Religious Factors: Practices significantly impact consumption.
- Health and Environmental Awareness: Increased consumer knowledge about health risks from red meat and the environmental impact of livestock farming influences choices, particularly in high-income regions.
- Alternative Protein Market Growth: The rise of plant-based and cell-cultivated alternatives provides more options, influencing habits where these are available and accepted.
A Tale of Two Meat Markets
| Feature | High-Income Countries | Middle/Low-Income Countries |
|---|---|---|
| Per Capita Trend | Plateauing or declining | Rapidly increasing |
| Primary Driver | Environmental, health, and welfare concerns | Rising incomes and population growth |
| Protein Shift | From red meat towards poultry and alternatives | General increase across all meat types, particularly poultry |
| Major Market Dynamic | Innovation in alternative proteins and sustainability practices | Meeting growing demand and modernizing production |
| Consumption Example | UK sees 15% drop over a decade | China's per capita consumption more than triples in recent decades |
The Rise of Poultry and Alternative Proteins
Within the meat market, poultry is driving a significant portion of global growth due to its affordability, versatility, and perception as healthier. This trend is seen in both developed and developing regions, contributing to the overall increase in total meat consumption. The market for alternative proteins is also expanding, especially in Western countries, with plant-based and cultivated meat products addressing consumer demand for sustainable options.
Conclusion: A Bifurcated Global Trend
To answer "Is meat consumption increasing?" we must recognize the global divide. The total is rising, driven by population growth and rising incomes in emerging economies. However, in wealthier countries, per capita consumption is stabilizing or decreasing due to health and sustainability concerns, leading to a shift towards poultry and plant-based alternatives. Forecasts predict continued, slower global growth. Future consumption will depend on economic development, changing values, and alternative protein innovation. A comprehensive report is available at the {Link: OECD website https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_601276cd-en/}.
