Avian Influenza: The Primary Culprit
One of the most significant causes behind the egg shortage is the persistent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), or bird flu. This current strain is a year-round threat to commercial poultry flocks globally.
Widespread Culling
To prevent spread, infected flocks are culled, leading to millions of lost egg-laying hens. For instance, approximately 10% of the U.S. laying flock was affected between November 2024 and January 2025. Replacing these birds takes months for new chicks to mature and lay eggs, creating a significant supply delay.
Geographical Impact
Bird flu has impacted various regions differently. Australia lost about 10% of its laying flock in 2024-2025, while Europe and Japan have also seen significant losses, contributing to a global disruption.
Soaring Production and Transportation Costs
Increased egg production costs are also contributing to higher retail prices. Key factors include:
- High Feed Prices: Costs for chicken feed, largely corn and soybeans, have been unstable due to global issues. Feed can be up to 70% of a farmer's costs.
- Energy and Fuel Expenses: The cost of energy for farms and fuel for transport has also increased.
- Inflationary Pressures: General inflation impacts costs throughout the supply chain.
The Shift to Cage-Free Production
The move towards higher-welfare, cage-free systems also adds to the complexity. Regulations in many areas encourage or require this change.
- Higher Costs: Cage-free systems are often more expensive due to space and infrastructure needs and can cause temporary supply dips during transitions.
- Supply Chain Disruption: Adapting logistics for different farming systems can disrupt the supply chain. Some states have temporarily eased these rules during the shortage.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Consumer Behavior
The current egg supply chain is not as resilient as needed to handle multiple disruptions.
The "Efficiently Broken" Supply Chain
Some experts call the U.S. supply chain "efficiently broken" because it prioritizes low cost over resilience. With few major producers, an issue at one farm can have widespread effects.
Exacerbated by Panic Buying
Empty shelves can lead to panic buying, increasing demand when supply is already low. Some stores limit purchases to manage this.
Comparison of Supply Chain Resilience
| Feature | Resilient, Localized System | Centralized, "Efficiently Broken" System |
|---|---|---|
| Producer Base | Many small to medium-sized local farms | Few, very large corporate producers |
| Disease Risk | Lower risk of widespread infection; easier to contain outbreaks | Higher risk of rapid, widespread viral spread within large, dense flocks |
| Supply Recovery | Faster recovery from localized incidents; diversification of sources | Slow recovery after culling, with months of production downtime; single point of failure |
| Input Costs | More susceptible to local market fluctuations; higher investment in welfare | Benefits from bulk purchasing of feed and energy; vulnerable to global price shifts |
| Price Stability | More stable prices due to localized markets and diversified producers | Highly volatile prices; prone to dramatic spikes during shortages |
The Ripple Effect of Shortages
Egg shortages impact food manufacturers, bakeries, and restaurants, leading to higher prices for consumers. This contributes to food inflation and strains household budgets, particularly for those who rely on eggs as an affordable protein.
Conclusion: A Complex Web of Factors
The egg shortage is a result of multiple interacting issues. Bird flu, rising costs for feed, energy, and labor, and supply chain weaknesses have reduced supply. Consumer demand and panic buying also play a role. Recovery will take time and stability from disease outbreaks. The situation highlights the need for a more resilient supply chain. For further reading, see this New York Times report: Egg Prices Surge Again Even as Inflation Eases.
How the Industry and Consumers are Responding
Producers are improving biosecurity and exploring new production methods. Consumers are using egg substitutes or seeking local sources. While helpful, large-scale issues require broader solutions for a stable future egg supply.
